Nickel Research Centre

Nickel News Roundup - Week 1

January 7th, 2025

Market Overview:

Digital assets recovered and moved into bullish mode again this week, as traders returned to the market following the festive period.
  • Bitcoin once again traded across a broad range, as large Bitcoin sell-offs in the final days of 2024 (likely driven by profit-taking and tax-harvesting) were quickly converted into buy pressure once 2025 arrived, driving Bitcoin above $100,000 for the first time in two weeks
  • Over the last week, Bitcoin has demonstrated a steady upward trajectory to rise from $92,400 last Tuesday to a high of $102,460 on Monday
  • This pushed the total market capitalisation of Bitcoin above $2tn once again
  • Ether exhibited similar weekly chart movements to Bitcoin, rising from $3,320 on Wednesday to a Monday peak of $3,739
  • Overall industry market capitalisation increased to $3.58tn
  • Several major altcoins outperformed Bitcoin and Ether, with notable seven-day gains inside the top 20 market capitalisations including XRP (19.49%), Solana (14.84%), Cardano (28.8%), and Avalanche (25.05%)
  • According to industry monitoring site DeFi Llama, total value locked in DeFi gained around $7.5bn to reach $130.7bn

Digital assets recovered when traders returned from the holiday period, driving Bitcoin back above the $100,000 mark and leading to significant gains across several major altcoins. Crypto significantly outperformed other asset classes over 2024, and kicked off 2025 with more positive price action as traders and markets looked forward to a year of more supportive regulatory environments. ETFs posted daily inflows close to $1bn, institutions continued Bitcoin acquisition strategies, and a European banking giant deepened its digital asset exposure.

What happened: 2024 review

How is this significant?

  • Despite slow trading towards the end of the year, digital assets ended 2024 significantly up from the opening candle in January, comfortably surpassing other asset classes
  • Gold had “a banner year” rising 25.5% (as did crypto sceptic Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway) in 2024
  • The S&P 500 followed closely behind (up 23%), and the Nasdaq 100 posted a 28.6% gain
  • In contrast, Bitcoin performed more than four times better than any of the above assets, up 121% in 2021—and hitting 156% during its record high run
  • From its opening figure of $42,280, Bitcoin ultimately eclipsed the $100,000 mark, reaching an all-time high of $108,270 in mid-December
  • The year was book-ended by bullishness, as ETF approvals in January led a first surge to new record highs above $71,000, before Bitcoin spent around six months trading between $54,000 and $69,000, until a Republican victory in the US elections led to greater industry optimism and a renewed record run
  • Cumulative trading volumes for Bitcoin ETFs hit around $643bn in 2024, whilst AUM increased from $28.86bn during their mid-January launch to $111.61bn by year-end
  • Although Ether lagged Bitcoin’s performance, it still handily outclassed traditional asset classes, growing by 46% in 2024
  • A global user survey by leading crypto exchange Binance found that a high proportion of respondents (45%) entered the digital asset space this year, with 31% trading regularly
  • Industry development exhibited positive performance too, as crypto VC investments increased 26% year-on-year, with 2024’s largest deal featuring Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1bn
  • Most recently, December featured 60.9% month-on-month growth at $740m
  • Global crypto investment products smashed their record for annual flows, as CoinShares data revealed $44.2bn in net inflows
  • This equates to almost four times the previous record, set during the 2021 bull market
  • The total amount of tokenised real-world assets on chain—excluding stablecoins—increased from $8.39bn to $15.2bn (according to tracker RWA.xyz)
  • This was significantly boosted by the performance of tokenised money market funds from BlackRock and Franklin Templeton
  • Overall industry market capitalisation also showcased strong growth last year, almost doubling from $1.65tn to $3.26tn

What happened: ETF News

How is this significant?

  • Digital asset ETFs once again experienced truncated trading due to public holidays, with large year-end tax harvesting sell-offs followed by a renewed inflows when traders and investors returned from their festive breaks
  • According to CoinShares data published on Monday, digital asset investment products ended 2024 with a whimper before starting 2025 with a roar
  • The trading week ending Friday the 3rd of January exhibited net outflows of $75m—ending a 12-week run of positive flows
  • However, said week was skewed by large late-December sell-offs for tax harvesting purposes—CoinShares noted that 2025 started positively, with $585m net inflows at the report’s time of publishing
  • As industry executive Isaac Joshua explained “Many have liquidated both Bitcoin ETFs and the underlying asset itself to optimize their tax reports, a common phenomenon in financial markets during this period”
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs exhibited both major outflows (likely exacerbated by the above tax harvesting strategy) and inflows as 2024 shifted into 2025
  • BlackRock’s IBIT—the largest fund on the market—experienced record outflows on Thursday ($332m), before immediately recovering a large proportion with $253m Friday inflows
  • Thursday also marked the fund’s third consecutive day of outflows, an anomalous (and record) losing streak in IBIT’s dominant history
  • Overall outflows on Thursday hit $242m as other funds compensated for IBIT’s loss, before Friday marked one of the strongest inflow days ($902m) since launch, signalling a return of traders to the market
  • Fidelity’s FBTC was the best-performing fund of the last week, posting consecutive inflow days of $37m, $36m, and $357m following late-December tax harvesting sell-offs
  • ARK Investments’ ARKB fund was another big winner of the last week, adding $222m during Friday’s return to form
  • Bloomberg’s chief ETF analyst Eric Balchunas was enthused by Friday’s recovery, writing “I would have predicted a rough patch for the Bitcoin ETFs given the drop below $100k (overdue for a breather) but no, they roared back with nearly $1bn Friday, which lifted the 1 week to positive net. Good sign. The scoring was spread around too, also a good sign”
  • Friday’s recovery carried over into Monday, as no funds experienced outflows and daily net inflows reached a near-record $979m
  • This substantial figure included nine-figure flows for IBIT ($209m), FBTC ($370m), and ARKB ($153m), as well as Bitwise’s BITB and both Grayscale funds all exceeding $70m inflows
  • Spot Ether ETFs experienced more muted trading than their Bitcoin counterparts, with the majority of funds experiencing net zero flows over the last week
  • BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH proved outliers against this trend, but only with modest inflows of $34m and $27m respectively on Friday
  • However, ETHA posted rare nine-figure inflows on Monday, accounting for $124m of $129m total inflows
  • Meanwhile, a raft of new digital asset ETF filings wait in the wings for approval under the incoming SEC administration
  • Bloomberg notes over a dozen potential launches designed to capitalise on renewed enthusiasm for crypto assets; including ProShares’ plan for an S&P 500 ETF denominated in Bitcoin, inverse and leveraged Solana ETFs, and exposure to convertible bonds used to finance corporate Bitcoin purchases
  • Athanasios Psarofagis of Bloomberg Intelligence commented “This is the continued evolution of launches to incorporate crypto strategies into ETFs. We’ll see a lot of these in 2025. It’s the hot thing—issuers love to strike when the theme is hot. We’ll see crypto everything”
  • Strategas ETF strategist Todd Sohn added “It is rare that a new asset class comes around for the investing masses, and that’s what crypto is now—and Wall Street is always great at creating supply when there is demand. “So this is the evolution of the crypto ETF spectrum: futures-based, spot, thematic, and now convertibles”

What happened: Analysts issue predictions for 2025

How is this significant?

  • A new calendar year usually provides a plethora of predictions on likely themes to dominate the next 365 days ahead—and so it proved within the digital asset sphere, as a wide range of firms and analysts provided their own forecasts
  • ETF issuers Bitwise published a bullish set of ten predictions, including price targets ($200,000 for Bitcoin, plus new records for Ether and Solana), at least five “unicorn” crypto IPOs in the US, and a doubling of countries holding Bitcoin
  • Fellow issuers VanEck also released ten predictions, including new highs in Q1 and Q4 (similar to 2024’s performance pattern), a rise in AI-driven autonomous “agents”, and new TVL highs for the DeFi landscape
  • Research and brokerage firm Bernstein joined in the top 10 trend, declaring “the Infinity Age” for digital assets; “a long period marked by relentless evolution and widespread acceptance, leading to a point where crypto is no longer controversial—just part of the financial system built for the new intelligent age”
  • Bernstein’s specific predictions included a $200,000 price target for Bitcoin (not including the potential impact of any nation-level strategic reserves), $50bn inflows into corporate treasuries (up from $24bn in 2024), and increased institutional Ether adoption
  • The Financial Times concentrated on the evolving political landscape, writing “The dawn of Trump’s second term promises to mark a turning point for crypto, bringing it out of the shadows and into the mainstream—The industry believes the president-elect… and his Republican-controlled Congress will unleash a golden era for them”
  • However, some are less optimistic, saying that crypto’s “welcome to Washington moment” sees it arrive as a “less-than unified political force”
  • Industry publication Coindesk highlighted increased AI integration, greater attraction of regulated crypto hubs, and cross-chain interoperability as key themes shaping 2025
  • Bloomberg believes that “the new administration is likely to be ‘friendlier’ to crypto than the Biden administration”, crypto payments (driven by stablecoins) will “go mainstream”, and Bitcoin will continue rivalling gold
  • Additionally, Bloomberg highlighted decentralised digital identity, the privacy technology of zero-knowledge proofs, oracles (technology ensuring that correct real-world information is entered into blockchains), and AI synergies as potential technology vectors for growth
  • In other predictions, Zodia Custody forecast regulatory clarity and tokenisation growth, Revolut echoed expectations of regulatory progress in the US, EU, and UK, Robinhood anticipates infrastructural integration of “crypto in the background, under the hood, to reduce fees and improve speed”, Fidelity focused on stablecoin growth, and Franklin Templeton wrote “2025 will solidify [Bitcoin’s] position as a global financial asset, buoyed by increasing government and institutional support. Strategic Bitcoin reserves will likely be added by some nations, spurring broader adoption of Bitcoin as a store of value and reserve asset globally”

What happened: BlackRock’s IBIT declared “greatest ETF launch of all time”

How is this significant?

  • One of the biggest stories of 2024 was the runaway success of spot Bitcoin ETFs—and the biggest story within that story was the unprecedented performance of BlackRock’s IBIT
  • IBIT (followed in a distant second place by Fidelity's FBTC) led all spot ETFs, accruing over $50bn AUM within 11 months
  • Nate Geraci of ETF Store hailed IBIT as "The Greatest Launch in ETF History"; and most metrics support his assertion
  • Out of more than 1,400 ETFs issued by BlackRock’s iShares unit, IBIT delivered the best performance, helping to boost BlackRock’s ETF performance by more than 100%
  • IBIT was a strong performer right out of the gate, achieving $10bn AUM in seven weeks; shattering the previous record (held by a gold ETF) of two years
  • To name a few of the fund’s achievements; it reached the $50bn AUM milestone in one-fifth the time of the previous record holder, overtook BlackRock’s own gold ETF in AUM (despite a 15-year headstart for gold), surpassed $1.1bn in daily inflows, and reached a record 71 consecutive trading days of post-launch inflows
  • Bloomberg's James Seyffart added "IBIT’s growth is unprecedented. It’s the fastest ETF to reach most milestones, faster than any other ETF in any asset class"
  • IBIT’s success was also identified as a transformative moment for the underlying asset itself, as it legitimised Bitcoin to casual observers; “a turning point for Bitcoin itself.... bringing both institutional investors and formerly sceptical individuals into the fold”
  • Bloomberg; “Simply put, no ETF has ever had a better debut”

What happened: Canada poised to follow US lead in digital asset policy

How is this significant?

  • The recent resignation of Canadian Premier (and crypto sceptic) Justin Trudeau led to speculation this week that the nation could follow its southern neighbour onto the path of more crypto-friendly administration and legislation
  • Bloomberg notes that despite more restrictive campaign financing regulations, “the Canadian [crypto asset] industry is still making progress since November”
  • Part of this progress appears predicated on a wish not to get left behind by “the most pro-crypto Congress in history” when Trump takes power in the US
  • Toronto-based industry CEO Dean Skurka told Bloomberg “Conversations are easier to start today than they were over a month ago, and I think that trend will likely continue regardless of the donations”
  • He added “obviously in the US this is the first time that it’s really become an election issue… Hopefully the positive response that it has seen the start of will be a signal to Canadian politicians to take it seriously”
  • Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson concurred, commenting “Crypto is here to stay and the US elections cemented crypto in the history books and paved a path for every country around the world to start thinking deeply about how they will advance their own personal strategies”
  • Although Canadian elections—scheduled for October—remain on the distant horizon, current polling suggests a strong advantage for the Conservative Party and its leader Pierre Poilievre, a vocal supporter of digital assets

What happened: Crypto brokerage FalconX acquires derivatives platform

How is this significant?

  • Following initial rumours in the dying days of 2024, institutional digital asset broker FalconX confirmed the acquisition of derivatives platform Arbelos Markets this week
  • Although terms of the deal were not disclosed, Bloomberg sources reported a combination of cash and FalconX stock secured the acquisition
  • In a press release, FalconX CEO Raghu Yarlagadda said “Combining Arbelos’s systematic trading expertise with FalconX’s broad client base, large balance sheet, and regulatory leadership, we’re uniquely positioned to address the growing demand for complex trading strategies and bespoke products”
  • Arbelos previously closed a $28m funding round in May, and was founded by bankers-turned-crypto-traders Joshua Lim and Shiliang Tang
  • Lim stated “Joining forces with FalconX achieves our shared mission of offering deep market liquidity, creative risk-expression strategies and hedging tools, and transparency to the crypto derivative markets. This combination comes at a critical moment for our industry, with the advent of crypto ETFs, pending regulatory clarity, and an increasing acceptance of crypto's diversifying role in cross-asset portfolios”

What happened: MicroStrategy makes Bitcoin purchase via new mechanism

How is this significant?

  • Corporate Bitcoin leader MicroStrategy added yet further to its considerable Bitcoin coffers this week; announcing forthcoming purchases via a new method
  • MicroStrategy is now planning $2bn in financing via a perpetual preferred stock strategy to fund further Bitcoin acquisitions as part of its “21/21” plan to acquire $42bn worth of the asset
  • On Monday, Benchmark equity analyst Mark Palmer wrote “The extent to which investors value this element of MSTR’s offerings has been reflected in the oversubscription of its convertible offerings and their pricing”
  • He added that “We believe it is likely that any preferred stock the company offers would include both features, with convertibility into common shares providing preferred stock investors with elements of volatility and optionality that they do not often see. These securities, in essence, would offer preferred investors a unique proposition: an embedded, indefinite call option on a company whose value is largely tied to a highly volatile crypto asset”
  • According to a new SEC filing, MicroStrategy’s most recent Bitcoin buy clocked in at $101m for 1,070 Bitcoin
  • These buys were performed at an average price of around $94,000 on December 30th and 31st, taking advantage of tax harvesting sales by other traders, taking its total holdings to 447,470 Bitcoin
  • MicroStrategy’s latest announcement marked the ninth week in a row of acquisitions for the firm, which has purchased around $18bn of Bitcoin since the presidential election
  • Reports in the industry press and MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor’s social media this week revealed that Saylor met Donald Trump’s son Eric at Mar-a-Lago this week to discuss Bitcoin
  • Meanwhile, Japanese technology firm Metaplanet also announced plans to expand its Bitcoin balance sheet, as CEO Simon Gerovish tweeted “In 2025, we aim to expand our Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by utilizing the most accretive capital market tools available to us”

What happened: Banking giant BBVA deepens crypto involvement

How is this significant?

  • Turkish bank BBVA Garanti (86%-owned by Spanish banking giant BBVA) this week announced the provision of digital asset services to its customers
  • This expands crypto asset services within the banking group, most notably within Switzerland
  • Garanti BBVA Kripto will execute its digital asset trades through Bit2Me, a Spanish crypto exchange founded in 2014
  • Bit2Me chief sales officer Abel Peña anticipates a further expansion of such services this year, telling Coindesk “I believe in 2025 we are going to see so many banks across Europe offering crypto spot trading to their users. We are in very close contact with more than 50 financial institutions, with banks all across Europe and internationally, and they will start launching their services in the first quarter of 2025”
  • He added that newly-active MiCA regulations in the EU should simplify the provision of institutional offerings within the region “As soon as they have the green light, they will start. This is from the knowledge that many of them are already integrated with us… We’re talking about an asset [Bitcoin] that many users and companies want to gain exposure to. This is something that banks cannot deny anymore”
2025-01-07 10:11 News Roundups