Digital assets had one of their best weeks ever, as Bitcoin hit new record highs and markets responded positively to a Republican victory in the US elections.
Bitcoin achieved several new record highs this week, first in anticipation, and then in realisation of a Republican election victory in the United States
Bitcoin soared above $75,000 for the first time on Wednesday, eclipsing its March record high, before climbing yet further to levels near $77,000
ETFs volumes increased substantially above their average levels, and the funds experienced record inflows after the election results were confirmed and traders felt safe moving back into the market
Bitcoin traded in a relatively narrow range during the buildup to the election, oscillating between around $68,000 and $69,000, before victories in swing states signalled a potential Trump (and therefore more perceived pro-crypto) victory
The leading digital asset hit a weekly low of $66,890 as tensions mounted on election day, before roaring to a new record high of $76,940 late on Thursday amidst wider market enthusiasm for the pro-business Republican victory
Ether grew from a Tuesday low of $2,371 to a weekly high of $2,944 early on Friday, its highest levels since August
Performance was positive across the entire digital asset sector, as only six tokens (excluding stablecoins) in the top 100 by market capitalisation failed to register weekly growth
The total market capitalisation of digital assets grew by over $150bn, exceeding $2.5tn for the first time since May
According to industry monitoring site DeFi Llama, total value locked in DeFi gained nearly $10bn for a current value of $96.7bn
Digital assets had an excellent week of bullish momentum, as the US election results appeared to signal an impending shift away from long-running regulatory hostility within the US. The Republican victory and its consequences for the industry dominated reporting, but elsewhere there was also significant news in ETFs, tokenisation, funding, and increased institutional adoption via pension funds.
What happened: ETF News
How is this significant?
Digital asset ETFs experienced strong performances and volumes, although pre-election de-risking and profit-taking meant lower overall inflows than last week
According to CoinShares data, digital asset investment products recently had one of their best-ever inflows, adding $2.2bn in the week ending 1st of November—the sixth-highest weekly inflows ever
As per usual, this was dominated by spot Bitcoin ETFs, as Ether ETFs accounted for just under $10m of that amount
Total year-to-date inflows have now topped $29.2bn, a record-breaking run
Spot Bitcoin ETFs exhibited massive volume—but this also included some of the highest outflows ever ($541m) before election day, as traders de-risked on November 5th as the US prepared to head to the polls
Uncharacteristically, BlackRock’s IBIT had two consecutive days of outflows ($44.2m and $69.1m) on Tuesday and Wednesday; likely election day de-risking followed by post-result profit-taking from the largest ETF as Bitcoin roared to record highs
IBIT saw record volumes alongside Bitcoin’s new record highs, logging $4.1bn of trades on Wednesday
Despite BlackRock’s outflows, the other ETFs capitalised on Bitcoin’s bullishness
Fidelity’s FBTC led the way with around $309m inflows, followed by ARK Invest’s ARKB ($127m), Grayscale’s mini-ETF ($109m), and Bitwise’s BITB ($101m)
Grayscale’s 1.5% fee GBTC also logged one of its best-ever days of (rare) inflows on Wednesday, adding a net $31m
Additionally, the 2x MicroStrategy ETFs (generally a proxy for Bitcoin exposure) benefitted from market movements, moving up to $1.6bn in assets under management
Bloomberg’s chief ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that a 2x ETF for crypto exchange Coinbase “went up 62%(!) yesterday [Wednesday].. that's gotta be close to a one-day return record for an ETF”
He praised the wider performance of spot ETFs beyond BlackRock, stating “The group of Bitcoin ETFs did $6bn [volume], their best day since the crazy early days. Most of the ETFs did 2x their average. Just an all around banger day for an infant category that never ceases to amaze”
Balchunas also pointed out that IBIT’s volumes topped bluechip stocks, and outflows were primarily down to pre-election de-risking, and could soon convert into inflows; “$IBIT just had its biggest volume day ever with $4.1bn traded… For context that's more volume than stocks like Berkshire, Netflix or Visa saw today. It was also up 10%, its second best day since launching. Some of this will convert into inflows likely hitting Thursday, Friday night”
Spot Ether ETFs couldn’t match their Bitcoin brethren for volume, but they also benefited from industry-wide bullishness with increased inflows
Although the product also experienced pre-election de-risking outflows ($63m on Tuesday), this was more than compensated by greatly-improved inflows when the political prognosis became clearer, as Wednesday and Thursday logged combined inflows above $130m
Futures also showcased a huge increase in volume, as CME Bitcoin futures hit a new record of $13.5bn, bringing the average daily volume in 2024 above the surge of volume following the FTX collapse in 2022
Analysts commented that the Republican electoral success could greatly improve the prospects for potential altcoin ETFs; multiple different issuers have submitted filings for high-cap digital assets including Litecoin, Solana, and XRP
Balchunas stated “These altcoin ETFs were going to be pretty much dead-on-arrival if Harris won but with Trump they at least have a fighting chance. We are not saying it’s a done deal, but the hurdle is lower”
Industry journalist Noelle Acheson backed up this perception, saying that smart contract blockchain Solana may have the best chances of approval; “Solana is seen as an Ethereum competitor, and has very much outperformed recently. The problem with XRP is that people struggle to understand what it is”
The New York Times reported that the industry’s campaign funding efforts paid off in a big way through “a string of victories” as congress welcomed more senators with specific—and supportive—crypto policies than ever before
Data compiled by Opensecret revealed this was “more than the oil and gas industry, the pharmaceutical industry and top Wall Street donor hedge fund and market-making powerhouse Citadel”
In fact, a Polymarket “whale” based in France won $79m from his wagers as the platform processed almost $3.7bn in presidential trading volume—bringing so much notoriety to the platform that French regulators immediately floated the idea of banning it
The Wall Street Journal noted that the whale (known as Theo) leveraged the discrepancy between direct polls and “neighbour polling”
El Salvador president Nayib Bukele, the driving force behind the nation’s embrace of Bitcoin, was the first international leader to congratulate Trump on his election victory
Coins currently under pressure from the SEC showcased strong surges, and asset managers 21Shares wrote in a client note that “The SEC has actively pursued a regulation-by-enforcement approach in recent years, targeting specific projects with direct actions, including issuing Wells Notices… This broad market reaction reflects optimism about the anticipated regulatory easing under the new administration”
FOX Business reported that SEC commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce wish to create an internal “crypto task force” within the agency, to foster dialogue with the industry
Lawyer Michael Selig of Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP commented “The SEC and CFTC will likely withdraw or settle many of their ongoing lawsuits and investigations against crypto industry participants and work collaboratively with these businesses”
Other observer analysis proffered that Tether could benefit at Circle’s expense from less regulatory scrutiny, and that a potential Solana ETF could undermine Ether’s position as the most widely-available smart contract blockchain
Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a prominent crypto advocate, responded very positively to the election results, tweeting (in all caps) “We are going to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve”
This appears to be boosting a bill she introduced in July, advocating that the US acquire a strategic stockpile of one million Bitcoin “mirroring the size and scope of gold reserves held by the United States”
However, analysts suggest she may have to wait a while, as such a plan may be unlikely to pass whilst cutting inflation remains the primary economic goal of the incoming administration
Pro-crypto political action committees (PACs and SuperPACs) like Fairshake were crucial in identifying and funding the requisite funding for this race—and will likely remain so as the industry looks to consolidate its position in future
Thomas Kaegi, Co-Head of UBS Asset Management APAC, remarked that the development was client-driven; "We have seen growing investor appetite for tokenised financial assets across asset classes"
UBS’ new on-chain money market investment fund token (uMINT) was “built on Ethereum distributed ledger technology”, although the wording of its press release didn’t clarify whether this means the public Ethereum blockchain, or a private, permissioned version
Initial announcements were scarce on details, but UBS pledged that it would provide “high quality money market instruments based on a conservative, risk-managed framework”
The firm also recently piloted a blockchain-based digital payments system, leveraging improved cross-border payment capabilities compared to legacy banking infrastructure
According to industry publication Ledgerinsights, the bank has “piloted domestic transactions and international payments in US dollars, Swiss francs, Euros and Chinese renminbi on its private blockchain”
Andy Kollegger, Head UBS Institutional & Multinational Banking, confirmed that “Blockchain-based payment solutions for cross-border payments are a strategic focus for UBS”, whilst a client commented “They make cross border transactions faster, on time and provide a seamless traceability, which is a huge benefit when operating in a global market”
As part of the move, its JPM Coin has also been renamed to Kinexys Digital Payments, processing more than $2bn a day
The bank said that it will introduce blockchain-based “automation of 24/7, near real-time multicurrency clearing and settlement” adding that “With growing transaction volumes, client adoption and product expansion, we’re poised to accelerate the adoption of blockchain technology and tokenization into mainstream financial services”
Additionally, Citigroup and Fidelity International this week announced the development of “an on-chain money-market fund that includes a digital foreign exchange swap”
The solution will be previewed at Singapore’s 2024 Fintech Festival, and aims to “facilitate faster, seamless transactions, allowing investors to manage FX risks more efficiently”
Numerous prominent people and institutions in and around the digital asset industry commented following the results of the US presidential and congressional elections, sharing their forecasts with the press
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong tweeted a graphic of Bernie Moreno’s victory over anti-crypto Sherrod Brown in Ohio, saying “Being anti-crypto is simply bad politics… Bernie Moreno understands that crypto is an important part of America's future. Bernie and the crypto owners who helped him secure this win understand how everyone can benefit from crypto and are willing to fight for it. Welcome to America's most pro-crypto Congress ever”
Gemini exchange co-founder Tyler Winklevoss was effusive in his celebration of the election, saying “We are on the verge of a new American renaissance”
His brother and co-founder Cameron Winklevoss was rather more visceral in his reaction to a congressional race, tweeting “Elizabeth Warren henchman Sherrod Brown has been defeated by Bernie Moreno for Ohio Senate. This is what happens when you mess with the crypto army”
Seth Hertlein, head of policy at Ledger, commented that “It’s been a historic year for crypto on the ballot. We are now seeing across political lines that the force of crypto is undeniable, particularly across pro-crypto congressional candidates”
Nickel Digital CEO Anatoly Crachilov commented “This shift signals an end to regulation by enforcement, creating a new opportunity for the US to establish itself as a global leader in the digital asset space… The focus now shifts to implementing the crypto-friendly policies promised on the campaign trail, a key factor for the market’s current optimism”
Tech billionaire and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said that Galaxy had its biggest trading day ever in the aftermath of the election, and that despite personally backing the Democrats, he was optimistic for the industry under Republicans; “I think with the election of Donald Trump and what he has pledged to be a very liberal crypto policy, we’re at the very beginning of what I think will be 52 weeks or 104 weeks of one piece of good news every week”
Temasek Holdings, the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund, was reported as the anchor investor behind a new $100m crypto fund from the VC firm Superscrypt
This is Superscrypt’s second fund, and represents a significant return to the industry from Temasek, after the firm was burned by exposure to FTX exposure and pulled back from future industry backing
Superscrypt was previously seeded by Temasek, and Bloomberg sources indicated that Republic would serve as another major backer (and general partner) for the new fund
Zodia CEO Julian Sawyer revealed in an interview that the custodian would use the funds to increase its international footprint, alongside an expansion of its services
Binance co-founder (and former CEO) Changpeng “CZ” Zhao gave his first interview since release from a four month incarceration (and personal $50m fine) over AML shortfalls at the exchange
Speaking with Bloomberg, he said that he had no plans to return to the exchange in the near future in any controlling capacity; “I don’t think I want to go back. I’ve been leading the company for seven years. I enjoyed it. It’s a lot of work. But I think that chapter is that chapter”
Additionally, he has received several offers for his equity in Binance since being released, but remained non-committal on potentially selling off; “I’m not saying that I’m going to hold onto the equity forever or not. I’m happy to review every offer, so far I haven’t done anything… I’m just a regular shareholder at this point”
Following the US election results, Zhao’s personal fortune reportedly grew to $53bn
When asked about comparisons between him and Sam Bankman-Fried (sentenced to over 20 years in prison), he said “That’s like comparing somebody who’s stealing money versus somebody who failed to register a company”
Cartwright, a UK pensions specialist, confirmed this week that it has guided the first pension fund into Bitcoin exposure, allocating 3% of its assets towards Bitcoin
Although the fund was not named, industry press confirmed that the scheme in question invested directly in the asset, rather than achieving exposure through an ETF or similar investment vehicle
In a press release, Cartwright’s Director of Investment Consulting, Sam Roberts commented: “Trustees are increasingly looking for innovative solutions to future-proof their schemes in the face of economic challenges. This Bitcoin allocation is a strategic move that, not only offers diversification, but also taps into an asset class with a unique asymmetric risk-return profile”
He added that “Our approach ensures that schemes can benefit from the significant potential upside whilst limiting the potential downside. Integrating bitcoin into a pension scheme’s investment strategy is a bold step that reflects the forward-thinking nature of the trustees involved”
Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, commented “It was only a matter of time before a UK pension scheme bought into Bitcoin, but this isn’t likely to spark a stampede into the asset class… pension scheme trustees are just as notoriously risk averse”
Cartwright also revealed that it was also launching a Bitcoin Employee Benefits scheme, enabling employers to pay Bitcoin into wallets created for their staff, which it says five separate companies have expressed an interest in
Mike Duggan, the mayor of Detroit, announced this week that the city would “soon have the option to pay taxes and other city fees using cryptocurrency through a secure platform managed by PayPal”
Duggan said “We are excited to be one of the first major U.S. cities to explore blockchains civic applications and allow residents to use their cryptocurrency as a payment option”
According to city treasurer Nikhil Patel, this facility should go live from 2025 onwards; “This new payment platform will increase accessibility for Detroiters who would like to use cryptocurrency; more importantly, the platform upgrade will also make it easier for Detroiters to make electronic payments – including those who may be unbanked”
This makes Detroit the largest US city to accept crypto assets as payment for city fees and taxes, and puts Michigan in select company with three other states where such options exist, on a state level