Nickel Research Centre

Nickel News Roundup - Week 31

August 2nd, 2024

Market Overview:

Digital assets experienced volatility this week, pulling back from strong early trading after US interest rates were left unchanged and recessionary fears grew.
  • Bitcoin reached its highest levels in six weeks, rising to nearly $70,000 on the wave of optimism following a speech by presidential candidate Donald Trump at a Bitcoin conference, before surrendering gains in later trading
  • Bitcoin experienced a significant decline on Thursday, dropping from over $65,000 to nearly $62,000 as US economic data caused concern for investors across multiple markets
  • Bitcoin reached a weekly peak of $69,820 on Monday, before declining to as low as $62,270 on Thursday
  • However, the leading digital asset bounced back in early-Friday trading, recovering from the $62,000 levels to around $64,000
  • Ether generally followed Bitcoin’s movements, hittings its weekly high on Monday at $3,395, before pulling back to a low of $3,086 on Thursday
  • Overall digital asset market capitalisation dropped to $2.3tn, after a high of $2.48tn on Monday
  • According to industry monitoring site DeFi Llama, total value locked in DeFi remained relatively static at $95.2bn

Digital assets moved into the political spotlight and discourse following Republican candidate Donald Trump’s speech at a national Bitcoin conference. Cantor Fitzgerald moved into Bitcoin financing, stablecoin issuer Tether reported quarterly profit in excess of $1bn, and MicroStrategy revealed plans to add another $2bn of Bitcoin to its balance sheet.

What happened: ETF News

How is this significant?

  • Spot Ether ETFs completed their first week of trading, with Tuesday snapping a five-day outflow streak and marking the first inflows since launch day
  • Although outflows were substantial (currently standing at net $480m outflows since funds launched), they all originated from the same fund; Grayscale’s converted Ethereum Trust, ETHE
  • As seen in the Bitcoin launches, Grayscale’s tactic appears to be cashing in via higher fees (ETHE’s 2.5% is ten times the next-highest fee) whilst ceding AUM
  • Though it shares GBTC’s trend of bleeding AUM from a converted fund due to exorbitant fees, ETHE is actually losing assets at a higher comparative rate
  • Outside of Grayscale’s vehicles, the other funds showed consistent daily inflows or net neutral flows
  • BlackRock’s ETHA led the way, taking in $118m on Tuesday, part of $623m total inflows since launch
  • Fidelity’s FETH achieved $39.3m inflows on Monday, gaining on the cumulative inflows ($287m) of market runner-up Bitwise
  • Bitcoin ETFs meanwhile posted a run of moderate overall daily inflows (between $31m and $124m across all funds), punctuated by consistent outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC
  • However, Grayscale might mitigate its total outflows slightly; on Wednesday, Grayscale launched its mini-Bitcoin ETF, which converted 10% of GBTC’s AUM into a new ETF with a 0.15%; the lowest in the category
  • As Bloomberg’s chief ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted “Grayscale's Mini-Me Bitcoin ETF $BTC launched today… with $1.7bn and category-low fee of 0.15%. Important to recognise how crazy-cheap 15bps is—about 10x cheaper than spot ETFs in other countries and other vehicles”
  • BlackRock’s IBIT again posted a nine-figure daily inflow, taking in nearly $206m on Monday
  • Speaking about the presence of ETFs for the two leading crypto assets, Franklin Templeton Head of Digital Assets Roger Bayston told Bloomberg “We’re super-early in this transition of making crypto easy to access… demystify, open access in trusted places; in the ETF wrapper it becomes much easier to invest”
  • He acknowledged that “The Bitcoin brand is global… Ethereum doesn’t quite have the same name recognition”, but added that there could be further developments as “crypto and blockchain-native infrastructure continues to grow”
  • Outside of the US, Fidelity International listed a physically-backed Bitcoin ETP on the London Stock Exchange
  • Fidelity International Head of ETF & Index Distribution Europe Stefan Kuhn commented “The FCA’s decision to authorise crypto asset-backed ETNs for professional investors is a positive development and reflects the increasing acceptance and demand of digital assets”

What happened: Political news—Crypto becomes a factor in US presidential election

How is this significant?

  • Digital assets featured heavily in the US political news cycle this week, after Donald Trump gave a headline speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee
  • In the speech, he made several overtures and pledges to the industry, promising to be “the first crypto president” and end the “anti-crypto crusade” of the Biden administration
  • He positioned the Republican party as the only choice for the asset class, saying “The Biden-Harris administration’s repression of crypto and bitcoin is wrong and it’s very bad for our country”
  • Perhaps the loudest response came when he promised to—if elected—fire Gary Gensler as chair of the SEC on day one in office, citing his perceived hostility towards the industry
  • Trump opined that “one day, Bitcoin will probably overtake gold”
  • He acknowledged the need for regulatory clarity, saying he would create a “Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council. The rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry”
  • Trump announced a plan to “Make Bitcoin Great Again” and “make the United States the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world”
  • He added “if crypto is going to define the future, I want it to be mined, minted, and made in the USA”
  • “If we don’t do it, China will do it” was cited as a reason for the US to take a leadership role, despite the China’s current official ban on digital asset trading
  • The former president also vowed to veto any attempts at creating a CBDC, and—most significantly—pledged to create a strategic national stockpile of Bitcoin, by refusing to sell any of the Bitcoin currently held by government agencies
  • Although this stopped short of pledging a policy of active acquisition, it nonetheless was perceived by some analysts as a watershed of sorts; recognising Bitcoin as a reserve asset that serves the US best when kept off the open market
  • His appearance at the conference marked perhaps the most visible about-turn possible from crypto critic in 2019 to crypto convert in 2024
  • Trump’s speech was positively received by many in the industry; conference attendee and Dataprana CEO Arseniy Grusha stated “If Trump is elected, the US will have to add Bitcoin as a reserve, because it is digital gold. The earlier they do that, the better it will be for the United States”
  • However, whilst the market rallied after Trump’s speech and “never sell your Bitcoin” statement, there was a decline after government-linked wallets were tracked moving $2bn in Bitcoin within two days of Trump’s strategic reserve pledge; a move which tech billionaire Mike Novogratz described as “tone deaf”
  • The day before Trump’s speech, independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr actually went a step further at the same conference, advocating not just for maintenance of America’s existing Bitcoin stockpile, but an increase to four million Bitcoins held
  • On Saturday, Republican senator Cynthia Lummis revealed she would introduce a bill which, if passed, compels the US Treasury to purchase one million Bitcoins over 5 years as a “strategic Bitcoin reserve”
  • Lummis explained that “Bitcoin is a great store of value. Over the last four years or so it has increased about 55% per year. During the same period, the US dollar has declined in value and we’ve seen increasing inflation. So it would be of value, in my opinion, to have a hard asset that backs the US dollar and that grows in value instead of declines in value”
  • Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett revealed that the conference outreach was beneficial to the coffers of the Trump campaign; at an industry fundraiser he apparently raised an “eye-watering $25m”
  • On the other side of the aisle, the presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris seemingly moved to repair some of the bridges burned over the course of her tenure in the Biden administration; the FT reported that her advisors met with several major firms in the industry (including Coinbase, Circle, and Ripple Labs) seeking a “reset”
  • Sources said her campaign’s contacts went beyond fundraising, and concentrated on changing the “anti-business” reputation of the Democrats; “the objective was to build a constructive relationship that would ultimately set a smart regulatory framework that would help the growth of the entire asset class”
  • This approach may be working; the Harris campaign has gained ground on Trump in battleground states, with backing from Silicon Valley
  • Momentum behind Harris was cited by some as a catalyst for this week’s Bitcoin decline; unwinding a “Trump Trade”
  • The financial impact of the digital asset industry on campaigns now is far greater than in the last election cycle, when disgraced FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was its most visible face
  • The industry superPAC Fairshake has raised more money than any other political action committee, with the FT citing $200m (Bloomberg reckons $170m) in funding for pro-crypto candidates (or against)
  • Regarding regulatory clarity, The Bahamas (former headquarters of collapsed exchange FTX) passed the Digital Assets and Registered Exchanges Act (DARE 2024)
  • This new crypto law builds on the previous DARE 2020 legislation, requires increased protective measures from exchanges, and “introduces comprehensive reforms designed to address the evolving landscape of digital assets and cryptocurrency markets”

What happened: Tether reports $1.3bn quarterly profit

How is this significant?

  • Stablecoin issuer Tether reported another strong quarter in its newest financial attestations, posting $1.3bn net profit, as high interest on backing assets helped to counteract a decline in Bitcoin price
  • The issuance of USDT stablecoins must be matched one-for-one with dollars held in bank accounts—or liquid dollar substitutes, which currently earn the firm handsome profits thanks to elevated interest rates
  • CEO Paolo Ardoino stated “We keep increasing in market cap and then we keep increasing in our exposure to US Treasury bills. I believe that is unprecedented for any private company—we are comparing ourselves to countries”
  • According to Tether, net profit for H1 2024 was $5.2bn
  • In other industry earnings news, publicly-traded exchange Coinbase outperformed estimates, posting a $36m profit with $1.45bn in Q2 revenue, above $1.39bn predictions
  • Transaction revenue also did better than anticipated; $780.9m at vs $745.1m
  • CFO Alesia Haas noted a diversification of revenue streams for the firm, including subscription services, and its own Ethereum Layer-2 solution, BASE (which saw 300% transaction growth over the quarter)

What happened: Cantor Fitzgerald launches Bitcoin financing business

How is this significant?

  • In a Saturday press release, financial service firm Cantor Fitzgerald announced the creation of a $2bn Bitcoin financing business
  • This new business will launch lending to “provide leverage to investors who hold Bitcoin”, and the firm will announce intentions to “substantially grow the operation” in additional $2bn tranches as time passes
  • Speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, chairman Howard Lutnick said “Cantor Fitzgerald arranges and finances vast amounts of securities and commodities and, as strong supporters of Bitcoin, will now build an incredible platform to support Bitcoin investors' financing needs. We are excited to help unlock Bitcoin's full potential and continue bridging the gap between traditional finance and digital assets”
  • Lutnick also stated that the firm owns a “shedload” of Bitcoin, and “My view is that Bitcoin, like gold, should be free to trade everywhere in the world, and as the largest wholesaler in the world, we are going to do everything in our power to make it so…We are going to welcome Bitcoin into the financing family of the global financial markets”

What happened: Circle trading at $5bn valuation in pre-IPO secondary market

How is this significant?

  • According to multiple people with knowledge of the matter, US-registered stablecoin issuer Circle is currently trading at an implied $5bn valuation, according to secondary market pricing for privately-held stock
  • This nonetheless represents a significant decline from the $9bn valuation publicised when the firm initially tried going public in 2022, via an ultimately-failed SPAC merger
  • The initial attempt suffered from poor timing, denied by the SEC in December 2022 following FTX’s November 2022 collapse
  • In a January report, Circle said that over 2.7 million wallets currently hold at least a transactional amount of its USDC stablecoin
  • Earlier this year, the firm revealed its filing of an S-1 document with the SEC regarding an IPO, but details remain confidential

What happened: California uses blockchain to record vehicle ownership

How is this significant?

  • The California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) is modernising its registration database by moving titles onto the blockchain; a significant feat in a state with more than 42 million car titles
  • The titles will be on the Avalanche blockchain and accessible via a DMV app, according to a blog post by Avalanche
  • This greatly simplifies the process of claiming, tracking, managing, and transferring vehicle titles; a DMV spokesperson told industry publication Coindesk that “the time to transfer vehicle titles drops to a few minutes using blockchain rails in the backend from two weeks via the traditional process”
  • Tokenisation of vehicle titles is the latest in a burgeoning movement of digitising real world asset (RWA) ownership via blockchain
  • Avalanche developer John Wu told Coindesk that the technology could benefit more government services; “Blockchains are the most advanced tool any organisation can leverage to maximise efficiency, maintain compliance and protect consumer data—vital components for a government serving its constituents”

What happened: Hedge funds buy $875m worth of creditor claims related to FTX collapse

How is this significant?

  • Numerous hedge funds have purchased an $874.5 million obligation owed to bankrupted lenders BlockFi by collapsed digital asset exchange FTX
  • Obligations previously purchased for 10 cents on the dollar will now be fully repaid with interest, according to the latest plans from the FTX estate
  • However, it should be noted that this 100% restitution will not result in creditors being made whole in their crypto holdings; it relies on November 2022 prices for crypto assets, and benefits from the subsequent market rally
  • Bloomberg sources said the hedge funds involved included Diameter Capital Partners, Canyon Partners and Farallon Capital Management
  • According to court records, other distressed debt investors such as Attestor Limited have also increased their exposure to FTX claims; Attestor grew its holdings from $394m in January to $760m in June, whilst Diameter carries around $400m exposure

What happened: MicroStrategy raising $2bn for additional Bitcoin purchases

How is this significant?

  • MicroStrategy, one of the leading corporate Bitcoin holders, moved to strengthen its Bitcoin coffers yet further this week, as laid out in its second quarter financial results
  • In a press release, the firm revealed “Since the beginning of Q2, we grew our Bitcoin holdings by adding 12,222 Bitcoins through proceeds from our capital markets activities and excess cash… We continue to closely manage our equity capital, and are filing a registration statement for a new $2 billion at-the-market equity offering program”
  • CFO Andrew Kang added “Through our use of intelligent leverage, we have again achieved a “BTC Yield” of 12.2% year-to-date, which we believe demonstrates significant bitcoin accretion to shareholders,”
  • In June this year, the company completed an $800m convertible note issuance to purchase additional Bitcoin
  • Additionally, founder and chairman Michael Saylor also confirmed the purchase of a further 169 Bitcoins at a cost of $11.4m during July, to brings the company’s total holdings up to a nice round 226,500 Bitcoins
2024-08-02 10:02 News Roundups